As one of the largest hazelnut growers in the Willamette Valley and worldwide industry, Raptor Ag closely tracks hazelnut pricing and markets around the world. Over the past few weeks, growers (and even people associated with the processing side of the industry) have asked Raptor Ag our opinion of the current market. As a result, we decided to send out this market update.  

CORVALLIS, Ore., Oct. 15, 2025 – As most growers know, until April 2025, the last time Turkey suffered a major spring freeze was April 2014. Climate history shows the Turkish Black Sea hazelnut-growing area experiences major spring freezes as frequently as once a decade on average. The total crop size in Turkey in 2014 was in the 400,000 metric ton range, compared to crop sizes often near, or surpassing, 600,000 metric tons during that decade.  

Recent History
As we hit the early 2020s, Turkish yields often surpassed 700,000 metric tons, even approaching 800,000 metric tons. While yields from Turkey during that timeframe were strong and yields in Oregon and Chile were rapidly increasing, worldwide demand also increased. The growth in Turkey, however, has stopped, as stinkbugs have entrenched themselves in Turkey and severely affected yields and quality. Stinkbugs will likely cause major problems for the Turkish growers going forward indefinitely. Turkey's crop size has been in the 700,000 metric ton range for several years now despite good growing seasons. Oregon growers can manage stinkbugs, but even with our technology and chemistries, it's a pain in the butt. Interestingly, the Italian growers are also struggling to control stinkbugs. 
 
2025 Turkish Crop
That brings us to this year. Turkey not only experienced a catastrophic freeze in April, it also dealt with ongoing stinkbug problems and a drought. The combination of challenges has led to not only a huge decrease in yield, but also quality and kernel sizing issues. The total 2025 crop size in Turkey has not yet been finalized, but reports estimate the number could be similar to the 2014 crop size or less. That means the world crop is likely down about 25% - a huge number. 

What Will the Oregon Grower Price Be?
For the 2014 crop, the processors in Oregon set final pricing around Feb. 1, 2015. As a reminder, with some knowledge of the short worldwide industry inventory, the floor price set on Sept. 19, 2014, was $1.70/lb for all varieties (except J/G Ennis). 

Below is a chart that shows the wholesale raw kernel prices per pound out of Turkey during the time period grower prices were determined in 2014 - July 2014 through the end of January 2015. The 2014 price during that time period is shown, along with 2024 prices as a reference and where we are to date for 2025. As you can see, prices are tracking far higher than they did at the same time in 2014. It's interesting, and very concerning, to note that reports from Europe last week indicate that the recent drop in price was due to buyers being able to be buy cheaper hazelnuts from Oregon and the country of Georgia. Lower prices from Georgia can be expected, but the fact that one or more Oregon processors are apparently selling crop cheaper than the Turks is disappointing and makes us wonder whether the Oregon growers' best interest are being considered. Fortunately, prices are still tracking far higher than the same time period in 2014.

​

So how does this correlate to Oregon grower prices? Raptor Ag has run an analysis comparing historical Turkish wholesale prices to Oregon grower prices. There is obviously a correlation. For kernel varieties, the result of the current market equals grower prices in Oregon approaching, even far exceeding, $3.00/lb. 

Remember, Oregon grower prices in 2014 were $2.50/lb for Sacajawea (and McDonald, had it been in production at that time) and $2.30 to $2.41 per pound for the other kernel varieties. So does $3.00/lb sound possible? Consider the following: $2.50/lb in February 2015, according to the U.S. federal government's inflation calculator, equals $3.45/lb in August 2025 dollars. Even without an adjustment for inflation, dollar for dollar the market is tracking about $1.00/lb higher for raw kernels out of Turkey compared to the same time in 2014.  Receiving stations/processors have released grower prices in Italy. Raptor Ag just received an updated grower price sheet from one Italian processor dated Sept. 24, 2025. For high-quality nuts (the quality we all grow in Oregon), prices range from $2.79/lb for Mortarelle variety to $3.26/lb for Giffoni variety to $3.54/lb for Nocciola Piemonte IGP variety. These prices are net drying and defects AND a 4% value added tax charged to growers in Italy. The only cost not factored in is wash/dry, which also isn't included in Oregon published prices. NOTE: These are NOT Ferrero grower contract prices, they are open-market inshell grower prices, just like Oregon growers are exposed to. 
Where Will Prices End Up, and Are There Market Consequences?
For the 2014 crop, the worldwide open market pricing didn't peak until May 2015, months after Oregon prices were finalized. An argument could be made that Oregon growers should have been paid more that year. However, as one processor told us a couple weeks ago, today we receive information faster out of Turkey and can react with pricing more quickly. 

Will record high prices affect hazelnut markets? Absolutely. Some traders, wholesalers and retailers that were not in business in 2014 are shocked. Some of their customers are struggling to pay prices that are magnitudes higher than a few years ago. The better question for growers in Oregon is, should we care that some buyers may not buy this year? Raptor Ag's response is, "Not really." There are enough buyers in the world that have to have hazelnuts for their products that they will buy. Prices dictated by supply and demand are just part of business. Also, the big confectionaries use hazelnuts as a minority ingredient, and high hazelnut prices probably don't affect end-product cost as much as you may think. So all of Oregon's crop should probably be easy to sell at really good prices. And quality nuts are still in demand, especially with the issues going on with drought and stinkbugs in Turkey and Italy. Throw in a major freeze, and we Oregon growers have an uncommon commodity. 

Is expanding the market, as has been done in recent years with low prices, good for growers? Yes, to a point. We certainly don't need buyers that will only buy when grower prices are under $1.00 (we would say under $1.25/lb). But expanding the market is a good thing, and introducing more consumers to hazelnuts is a good thing. But overall, growers needed this massive worldwide shortage to dig out of financial pit created by low Covid prices (which buyers and retailers benefited from, partly at growers' expense) and tariffs that have negatively impacted Oregon growers going back to 2018. Most commodities go through cycles like this, so it's nothing new. 

Lastly, as one processor indicated to us two weeks ago, prices will likely be really good again next year. The same thing happened in 2015, as inventories remained low the year after the freeze despite Turkey's yield rebounding to 600,000 metric tons. Grower prices for McDonalds and Sacajaweas in 2015 were $1.73/lb. In August 2025 dollars, that equals $2.37/lb. 
​